The following analysis of the Loudoun County, Virginia housing market has been prepared by George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis. It was prepared for the Dulles Area Association of REALTORS® by analyzing Bright MLS housing data from MarketStats by ShowingTime.
Overview
- For the 30th consecutive month, active listings declined and reached the lowest recorded inventory number in over a decade for Loudoun County. At the end of December 2017, inventory was 15.9 percent lower than the same point last year. This left 894 homes for sale at month’s end, with 1.6 months of supply heading into 2018.
- The number of closed sales continued to decrease. December’s 467 closed sales represented a decline of 14.8 percent over December 2016. This is a continued sign of low inventory suppressing sales, as prospective buyers find both limited choices and climbing home prices. Overall in 2017, sales were up only 0.8 percent over 2016.
- Furthermore, fewer home buyers signed contracts in December 2017 compared to last year; new pending sales decreased 17.9 percent to 359.
- Price growth stalled as Loudoun County’s median home sale price reached $469,900 in December—a decrease of 1.6 percent on an annualized basis. Overall, however, 2017 saw a median price increase of 4.5 percent to $465,000.
- New listing activity decreased in December versus last year (-13.5 percent). Loudoun County added 333 new homes to the market in December, the lowest number of monthly new listings in five years. Overall in 2017, 9,469 new listings entered the market – a decline of 2.4 percent from 2016. Entering 2018, there appears to be little potential of relief from the market’s consistently low supply of homes.
- Loudoun County homes continued to sell faster than last year, with half of the December sales listing for 20 days or less—down from December 2016’s median of 24.
- Loudoun County home sellers received, on average, 98.3 percent of original list price in December.
- Sales of detached homes declined significantly in December—down 15.1 percent from last year with pending sales decreasing 27.6 percent. This is the lowest number of December detached homes sold in five years. The median sales price of detached single family homes in December was $610,368—unchanged from the previous year.
Among zip codes that consistently had over 20 sales per month in 2017, Aldie’s 20105 had the largest percentage growth of closed sales—up 20.8 percent over 2016.