May 2019 Loudoun County Market Trends Report: Inventory Tightening Slows

Overview

  • While inventory continues to hover near historically lows, the year-over-year decline in the number of active listings was notably smaller than in previous months.
  • The number of active listings declined 5.7 percent from May 2018 to May 2019, the smallest year-over-year decline since July 2015, the same month that the current inventory tightening cycle began. June 2015 was the last time that inventory increased year-over-year.
  • The notably small decline in the number of active listings was the result of an increase in the number of active listings of condos. While the number of active listings of condos in Loudoun County increased 16.8 percent year-over-year, the number of active listings of detached homes and townhomes both declined.
  • The low inventory is likely the underlying cause of recent trends in pending sales, average sales price to original list price (SP to OLP) ratio, median days on market (DOM), and median sales price.
  • The number of new pending sales in May declined 2.1 percent from the same month the year prior, likely a result of tight inventory.
  • Houses that are on the market are quickly commanding nearly full asking price. The median DOM decreased by 22 days from 35 days in May 2018 to just 13 days in May 2019. Furthermore, sellers are receiving nearly 100 percent of their original asking price; the SP to OLP ratio increased to 99.5 in May.
  • Finally, even though houses are quickly commanding nearly full asking price, this is not the result of sellers offering discounts. In fact, the median price of sold homes in Loudoun County increased 5.1 percent from $475,000 in May 2018 to $499,000 in May 2019.

For more information, read the full report.