November 2017 Loudoun County Market Trends Report: Inventory Decline Persists; Sales Growth Continues to Drip

The following analysis of the Loudoun County, Virginia housing market has been prepared by George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis. It was prepared for the Dulles Area Association of REALTORS® by analyzing Bright MLS housing data from MarketStats by ShowingTime.

 Overview

• The number of closed sales continued to decrease as the 467 closed sales in November represented a decline of 3.1 percent over November 2016. This is a continued sign of low inventory suppressing sales, as prospective buyers find both limited choices and climbing home prices.
• Furthermore, fewer home buyers signed contracts in November 2017 as compared to last November, as new pending sales decreased 14 percent to 405.
• Loudoun County’s median home sale price reached $456,900 in November—an increase of 6.5 percent on an annualized basis. This is the highest November median sales value in over a decade.
• For the 29^th consecutive month, active inventory declined. At the end of November, inventory was 12.8 percent lower than the same point last year. This left 1,106 homes for sale at month’s end, with 2 months of supply heading into December.
• New listing activity decreased in November versus last year (-20.3 percent). Loudoun County added 412 new homes to the market in November and the number of year to date new listings is down 1.5 percent from this time last year. The erratic change in new listings from month to month signals little long term relief from the market’s consistently low supply of homes.
• Loudoun County homes continue to sell faster than last year, with half of the November sales listing for 19 days or less, down from November 2016’s median of 23.
• Loudoun County home sellers received on average 97.2 percent of original list price in November.
• Detached home sales and supply are far outpacing those of attached homes. Detached homes continue as the only segment to increase in number of closed sales and new listings – both up 17.3 percent from last November. This is the highest number of November detached homes sold in over a decade.
• Low condo supply is likely suppressing sales and driving up prices. Condo prices reached are up 9.3 percent vs. November 2016. For the third consecutive month, condo sales declined significantly from last year—a decrease of 24.7 percent to 67 closed sales

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